Georgia Poll Shows GOP at Risk of Losing Governor's Mansion After 20 Years

A new poll from Georgia shows Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms leading Republican Rick Jackson in the governor's race, raising alarms for the GOP in a state it has controlled for over two decades. The survey, conducted by State Navigate, found Bottoms ahead 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters, including those leaning toward a candidate.

Governor Brian Kemp is term-limited, leaving an open seat that Democrats see as a prime pickup opportunity. A Bottoms victory would make her the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since Roy Barnes in 1998. The race is one of 36 gubernatorial contests nationwide in 2026, including open-seat races in Iowa, Michigan, Alaska, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

What the Poll Shows for Georgia

The State Navigate survey of 448 likely voters showed Bottoms leading in both versions of the ballot test. With leaners included, Bottoms had 51 percent support and Jackson 44 percent. Without leaners, Bottoms had 50 percent and Jackson 43 percent, with 7 percent undecided. The poll, conducted July 10-13, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

The poll also measured President Donald Trump's job approval in Georgia, with 56 percent disapproving and 41 percent approving. That finding could signal trouble for Republicans down ballot, as the president's party historically loses seats in midterm elections.

Jackson's campaign pushed back on the results. Spokesperson Garrison Douglas told Newsweek, in part, that the poll was flawed and that Bottoms had abandoned Atlanta during her tenure as mayor. He referenced an Atlanta Journal-Constitution article noting the poll's sample was about 8 points more Democratic than the 2024 presidential electorate.

Georgia's Shift From Red to Battleground

Georgia has transformed from a reliably Republican state into a true swing state over the last two decades. Rapid growth and demographic changes in Atlanta and its suburbs have driven the shift. Atlanta's suburbs were among the few places in the country that became more Democratic from 2020 to 2024, even as other areas moved rightward.

Trump carried Georgia by about 2.2 points in the 2024 presidential election, after Joe Biden won the state by roughly 0.2 points in 2020. Republicans have won every Georgia gubernatorial election since 2002, but Democrats have won several high-profile federal races, including Senate victories by Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

The Cook Political Report lists the Georgia governor's race as a toss up with a voting index of R+1.

Other Polls Show Mixed Results

A Fox News poll conducted June 23-27 showed Bottoms with 52 percent and Jackson with 47 percent among 1,002 registered voters. A Wick Research poll of 1,175 likely voters found the race tied, with Jackson slightly leading within the margin of error at 43.2 percent to Bottoms' 42.7 percent.

Prediction markets favor Bottoms. Kalshi gives her a 55 percent chance of winning, and Polymarket shows 54 percent for Bottoms and 45 percent for Jackson.

What This Means for Iowa and the GOP

For Iowa voters, the Georgia race offers a window into national political trends that could affect the Hawkeye State. Iowa also has an open governor's race in 2026, with Governor Kim Reynolds term-limited. Republicans will be watching closely to see if the same Democratic energy that appears to be building in Georgia could materialize in Iowa.

Democrats have seen strong results in Georgia so far in 2026. In a special election to replace former Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, Republican Clay Fuller won by about 11 points in a deep-red district. That was a significant narrowing from Trump's 37-point victory in the same district in 2024. Greene told Politico that Republicans should be concerned, warning the party could get slaughtered in the House and Senate.

Republican strategist Alex Patton told Newsweek that the GOP faces a more hostile political environment heading into November than in the previous election, with the economy and Trump's approval rating as major factors.

Georgia Senate Race Also in Play

The governor's race could have implications for the Senate as well. Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat first elected in 2021, is up for reelection. Republican Representative Mike Collins is challenging him. Recent polling has generally shown Ossoff leading, but the race remains competitive. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, making Ossoff's seat a key defensive priority for Democrats.

For Bottoms to break the Republican streak in the governor's office, she would need strong Democratic turnout and crossover support from independents and moderate Republicans. That combination has been elusive for Democrats in Georgia gubernatorial races, even as they have won federal races.

The race is shaping up as another test of Georgia's status as a political battleground, with implications that could ripple across the country, including in Iowa.