State Auditor Rob Sand and Republican businessman Zach Lahn will face off in their second debate Tuesday night, one week before Iowa voters choose a successor to Republican Governor Kim Reynolds.
The 7:30 p.m. matchup comes as a new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill shows Sand with a narrow lead, 49 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent of voters still undecided. Iowa has become one of the most closely watched states in the final stretch of the midterms, with competitive races for governor and for the state's U.S. Senate seat drawing national attention.
What to expect in tonight's debate
The candidates have spent the campaign trading sharp personal and political attacks, and the first debate set the tone for what viewers can expect.
Sand has hammered Lahn over his Kansas roots, pointing to Lahn's voting history in the Sunflower State before he registered in Iowa.
“You literally voted in Kansas in 2018 and in '20 and in '22. You registered to vote in Iowa less than two years ago,” Sand said in the first debate. “This is not about why you're in Kansas. This is about the fact that you're not in Iowa.”
Lahn, a businessperson making his first run for statewide office, has defended his travel between the two states, saying he has a blended family with children living in both Iowa and Kansas.
Gender ideology takes center stage
Lahn has also pressed Sand on gender identity and transgender issues, an area where Republicans see an opening with Iowa's conservative-leaning electorate.
According to The Hill, Sand has said he does not believe transgender women and girls should compete in women's sports leagues. But Sand objected to a 2025 Iowa law that removed gender identity from the state's Civil Rights Code, a position Lahn has worked to highlight in the campaign's closing weeks.
The exchange over parental rights and women's sports reflects a broader national debate that Republican candidates have made central to their campaigns this cycle, and it is likely to surface again on the debate stage Tuesday night.
What the polling shows
The Emerson College Polling and The Hill survey shows a race within the margin of error, meaning either candidate could win on Election Day.
Sand, a former state auditor who built a reputation as a government watchdog, has led in most public polling, but Lahn has closed the gap as Republicans argue the race is far from decided. The winner of next week's election will succeed Reynolds, who is not seeking another term.
National Republicans and Democrats have both invested in the race, viewing Iowa's governorship as a key prize in a state that has trended Republican in recent years but remains competitive at the state level.
Trump heads to Texas as midterms near
President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is making a double-barreled push for Republicans in Texas on Tuesday, with rallies scheduled in Corpus Christi at 3 p.m. EDT and Lubbock at 7 p.m., the same hour as the Iowa debate.
According to The Hill's reporting, Trump is stumping for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is locked in a highly contested Senate race against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, and for Gov. Greg Abbott's reelection bid.
Fox News reported that its latest poll shows Paxton and Talarico tied at 49 percent, a striking number in a state that has been a Republican stronghold for decades. U.S. News noted the events mark Trump's third swing through Texas since holding a first-of-its-kind midterm convention in Dallas in September, a sign of how much weight the president is putting on the state.
The Texas Senate seat is open because Sen. John Cornyn lost the GOP primary after Trump backed Paxton. Trump has blamed the tightened race on Cornyn and GOP strategist Karl Rove, citing their lack of support for the attorney general.
Farm frustration could shape Iowa's vote
Back home in Iowa, a different storyline is emerging that could affect races up and down the ballot: frustration among farmers.
The Hill's reporting highlights a warning sign for Republicans, noting that while Trump won 69 percent of the rural vote in 2024, recent polling from KFF and The Associated Press found that 6 in 10 rural voters now disapprove of the president's handling of the economy and cite cost of living as their top issue heading into the midterms.
Farmers have been hit especially hard by higher diesel prices, and an April survey from the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 94 percent of farmers reported worsening financial circumstances.
“I think that farmers are pretty ticked off,” former Minnesota Republican Senate Majority Leader Amy Frederiksen said.
“They want to vote for Republicans, but this is their business, these are their families, and it doesn't appear that anyone's listening,” she added.
That frustration may help explain why races in agricultural states like Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Nebraska are tighter than expected this cycle, and it adds an unpredictable element to the final week of campaigning in the Hawkeye State.
What happens next
Tonight's debate is the last major head-to-head event before Election Day on Nov. 3. Both campaigns are expected to focus on turnout operations in the final stretch, with Iowa's rural counties likely to play an outsized role in deciding whether Sand or Lahn claims the governor's office.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Iowa gubernatorial debate between Rob Sand and Zach Lahn?
The second debate between Rob Sand and Zach Lahn is scheduled for Tuesday at 7:30 p.m., one week before the Nov. 3 Election Day.
Who is leading in the Iowa governor's race?
An Emerson College Polling and The Hill poll shows Rob Sand leading Zach Lahn 49 percent to 45 percent, with 6 percent of voters undecided.
Who will replace Kim Reynolds as Iowa governor?
The winner of the Nov. 3 election between Rob Sand and Zach Lahn will succeed Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking another term.