Iowa's race to replace Governor Kim Reynolds is one of the five governor's mansions most likely to flip in November, according to The Hill's latest analysis, with State Auditor Rob Sand holding a polling lead over Republican businessman Zach Lahn two weeks before Election Day.
The Hill, publishing its rundown of the five most competitive gubernatorial contests on October 22, 2026, reported that Democrats are favored in 21 of the 36 governor's races on the ballot this fall, with Republican-held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Georgia all at risk. Republicans have one flip opportunity of their own in Kansas.
Where the Iowa race stands
Iowans have not elected a Democrat as governor in two decades. That streak could end next month if Sand's current advantage holds.
Polling has consistently shown Sand ahead, and Decision Desk HQ gives him a 72 percent probability of winning, a significant gain since the end of summer. Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democratic.
Carpetbagger attacks and blended families
Sand has cast Lahn as a carpetbagger. Lahn, who co-founded a private school in Kansas, travels between the two states to see some of his children, and The Kansas Reflector reported he voted in Kansas as recently as 2022.
Lahn has defended the travel, saying he needs to be present in his children's lives and describing his situation as a blended family.
Sand, positioning himself as a bipartisan public steward, has touted his record in the auditor's office and taken shots at both parties along the way.
Lahn's counterattacks
Lahn has not let the carpetbagger charge go unanswered. He has attacked Sand over the family wealth of his wife, Christine Lauridsen Sand, the chief executive of Lauridsen Group.
He has also tied Sand to transgender issues and hit him over COVID-19 pandemic precautions. Lahn has drawn support from allies of the Make America Healthy Again movement for his focus on cancer rates and water quality.
Other races that could flip
Kansas
Democratic Governor Laura Kelly is term-limited in a state President Donald Trump won by 16 points in 2024, giving Republicans a likely pickup. Kansas Senate President Ty Masterson faces Democratic state Senator Cindy Holscher. DDHQ gives Masterson a 69 percent probability of winning, though his advantage has narrowed in recent weeks. Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican.
Ohio
The Ohio governor's mansion could flip for the first time in two decades as Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy battle for outgoing Governor Mike DeWine's seat. Acton leads by 3.4 percent in DDHQ's polling averages, and the forecaster gives her a 60 percent probability of a flip. Cook Political Report considers it a toss-up.
The race turned uglier this week after Ramaswamy elevated a video featuring Acton's estranged mother urging Ohioans not to vote for the Democrat. The ad drew backlash from figures on both sides of the aisle.
Alaska
Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state lawmaker, faces Republican Bernadette Wilson in a four-way ranked-choice election. If the 37-year-old wins, he would become the youngest governor in Alaska's history and the first Democrat to hold the office since 1998. DDHQ gives him a 62 percent probability of winning.
Georgia
The race to replace term-limited Governor Brian Kemp is deadlocked. The latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll found Republican Rick Jackson at 46 percent and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms at 45 percent. Jackson, a billionaire, has spent more than $108 million of his own money on the race. DDHQ gives Bottoms a narrow 54 percent edge.
Why the governor's races matter nationally
Fox 5 New York noted that this November's elections offer one party a chance to do something it has been unable to do for more than a decade: control a majority of the nation's governors' mansions.
Several races could also mark firsts. If Acton wins in Ohio, she would be the first woman to win a full four-year term as governor there. If Bottoms wins in Georgia, she would become the state's first woman and first Black governor. If Ramaswamy wins, he would be the first Indian American elected governor of Ohio and the first male Millennial to win a governor's mansion anywhere.
Trump rallies in Sioux City
President Trump is scheduled to rally in Sioux City, Iowa on October 22, part of a busy midterm travel schedule that also includes stops this week in Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Michigan and Mississippi.
Iowa Republicans hope the presidential visit can help close the gap in a race where the numbers have been moving Sand's way since Labor Day.
FAQ
Who is favored in the Iowa governor's race?
Decision Desk HQ gives Democrat Rob Sand a 72 percent probability of winning, and Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Democratic, though polls have shown movement before.
When is Election Day?
Election Day is November 3, 2026, with early voting already underway in Iowa.
Who would replace Kim Reynolds?
Kim Reynolds is not seeking another term. Republican Zach Lahn and Democrat Rob Sand are competing to replace her.