President Donald Trump's record-low approval rating, voter frustration over prices and a fierce immigration fight are shaping the November 3 midterm elections, which will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress or Democrats gain the power to challenge his administration, according to Rappler.
Republicans hold narrow majorities in both the House and Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of each chamber. The outcome will hinge on a small number of competitive races, but the campaigns are being shaped nationally by Trump himself, who is scheduled to hold rallies in Florida, Iowa, Michigan and Texas in the closing stretch.
Trump Puts Himself on the Ballot, Literally
The president has repeatedly urged voters to treat him as if he were on the ballot, a message aimed at firing up his base. His approval rating has fallen to 31% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, an all-time low for him, Reuters reported.
The strategy carries risk. Making the election a personal referendum could just as easily motivate Democrats and independents to rally against his party, analysts noted.
Democrats have argued Trump broke his campaign promises to lower costs and end wars. They have promised an affordability agenda and pledged to hold the administration accountable for alleged corruption if voters hand them either chamber.
Cost of Living Tops Voter Concerns
Voters have consistently ranked the cost of living as the top issue this cycle, and Iowa families feeling the squeeze at the pump and the grocery store are no exception. Half of registered voters surveyed in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll cited the cost of living as the most important factor in how they will vote, Yahoo News reported. In the same poll, voters pointed to health care, gasoline, food and housing as the top household bills lawmakers should address.
What's driving the numbers
Gas prices have spiked since the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran in February. The national average for a gallon of gas stands at $4.28, up $1.20 from a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel now averages $6.32, a $2.70 jump from a year earlier, a painful figure for Iowa truckers and farmers hauling grain and livestock.
Grocery costs are up 1.8% over the past year, according to US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Home prices rose 2.1% over the same period, per the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
Republicans point to their top legislative achievement, a tax cut extension, as proof they are delivering relief. Democrats note the same bill slashed roughly $1 trillion from Medicaid and other health programs. Democrats also forced a government shutdown last year in a failed bid to extend health subsidies that benefited 24 million Americans.
Congress passed a bipartisan housing bill earlier this year. It became law without Trump's signature.
Immigration: A Sharp Contrast on the Border
On immigration, Republicans are running on results. Preliminary Department of Homeland Security data showed a 95% drop in migrants apprehended at the southwest border compared with former President Joe Biden's administration. The agency said there have been no Border Patrol releases the entire fiscal year for the first time ever.
But the issue has grown volatile. Fatal encounters with federal immigration agents have occurred in Maine, Minnesota and Texas. The deaths of two US citizens in Minnesota pulled many Democrats in competitive primaries to the left, with some candidates calling for the impeachment of then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and others demanding Immigration and Customs Enforcement be abolished.
The funding fight over immigration ended in a stalemate that forced Republicans to unilaterally pass a $70 billion bill funding ICE and Border Patrol for the remainder of Trump's presidency. Republicans counter Democratic criticism by arguing Democrats support open borders.
Federal immigration officials also raided the Washington home of Democratic US Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota this month, drawing widespread condemnation from Democrats. A person familiar with the case told Reuters one potential aim of the investigation could be to strip Omar of her US citizenship and deport her.
Other Issues in Play: AI, Crypto, Abortion, Israel
Artificial intelligence, data centers, cryptocurrency, abortion and Israel could also sway individual races, US News and World Report noted.
In Ohio's Senate race, Democratic nominee Sherrod Brown has labeled Republican Senator Jon Husted the face of data centers, and the crypto super PAC Defend American Jobs has spent more than $46 million to reelect Husted over Brown, a former US senator who once chaired the Banking Committee.
In Maine, Democratic nominee Troy Jackson is reminding voters that Republican Senator Susan Collins helped confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which later overturned the federal right to abortion. Collins is on the ballot for the first time since the court made abortion a state issue.
In Michigan, Republican nominee Mike Rogers has indicated he would accept help from a pro-Israel super PAC that spent more than $30 million backing Democratic US Representative Haley Stevens in her unsuccessful primary against Abdul El-Sayed, who now faces Rogers in November. The group has already spent more than $280,000 on mailers against El-Sayed.
What's Next
With two weeks to go, Trump's Iowa rally gives Hawkeye State Republicans a chance to energize the base in a state he carried comfortably. Early voting is underway across the country, and both parties are pouring money into the handful of races that will decide control of the House and Senate.
Frequently Asked Questions
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How many seats do Democrats need to win Congress?
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the House and a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.
What is Trump's approval rating?
Trump's approval rating has fallen to 31%, an all-time low for him, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
How much has gas gone up?
The national average price of gas is $4.28, up $1.20 from a year ago, according to AAA. Diesel averages $6.32, up $2.70.