Iowa State Loses Key Transfer, Hawkeyes Miss Bracketology Cut
The dust has settled on the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline, and the first look at the 2027 NCAA Tournament bracket is here. For Iowa fans, the early news is a mixed bag. Iowa State is holding steady as a projected tournament team despite a significant roster departure, while the Iowa Hawkeyes find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
Hawkeyes Left Out of the Field
It is always frustrating to be the last team left standing outside the arena. In the latest CBS Sports Bracketology simulation for the 76-team 2027 field, the Iowa Hawkeyes landed in the First Four Out category. Iowa joins LSU, TCU, and Florida State as the first teams on the outside looking in.
Being this close to the cut line in June means the season is still wide open. The Hawkeyes have plenty of time to make their case on the court. However, the early projection shows that the work is cut out for them in a competitive Big Ten landscape.
Cyclones Take a Hit in the Portal
While Iowa State remains safely in the projected field, the Cyclones took a notable hit this offseason. Sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic, ranked as the No. 2 transfer in the portal, is heading to Kentucky. Losing a player of that caliber is never easy, and it highlights the ongoing challenges college programs face in the era of unchecked transfer free agency.
The departure of an elite 3-point sniper like Momcilovic leaves a clear void in Ames. For a program that values continuity and development, watching a top talent walk out the door for a blue-blood program is a tough pill to swallow. It raises fair questions about whether the current transfer system truly serves student-athletes or simply creates a free-agent market that rewards the wealthiest programs.
Despite the loss, Iowa State is still projected as part of the Big 12's impressive 11-bid haul. The conference remains a gauntlet, and the Cyclones will need their returning players and incoming talent to step up quickly.
Big Ten Dominates the Bracket
The Big Ten leads all conferences with 12 projected bids, which is good news for the league but makes the climb tougher for bubble teams like Iowa. Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, UCLA, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, USC, Maryland, and Oregon all made the current cut.
Navigating a schedule packed with that many tournament-caliber opponents leaves a very thin margin for error. Every conference game matters, and a few bad losses could be the difference between dancing and watching from home.
Blue Bloods Lead the Top Seeds
Duke claimed the No. 1 overall seed by a narrow margin over Florida. The Blue Devils are bringing in the nation's top freshman class and added No. 3-ranked transfer John Blackwell. With key returners like Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster, Dame Sarr, and Patrick Ngongba back in the fold, Duke looks loaded once again.
Florida is right on their heels, returning four starters from a squad that includes three key pieces from the 2025 national title team. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu provide a strong foundation. The only lingering question is whether guard Denzel Aberdeen will receive an NCAA waiver for a fifth season.
UConn and Houston grabbed the other two No. 1 seeds. UConn is reloading with top transfers like Nik Khamenia from Duke and Najai Hines from Seton Hall. Houston's projection as a top seed is a bit of a surprise, given the Cougars must replace their four leading scorers. However, elite defensive anchor JoJo Tugler and the arrival of LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. give Houston a solid base.
Kentucky Benefits from Iowa State Transfer
At Kentucky, the addition of Momcilovic from Iowa State is a major win for third-year coach Mark Pope. The Wildcats moved from a No. 9 seed to a No. 7 seed in the latest projection. Momcilovic will team up with point guards Zoom Diallo and Alex Wilkins to give the Kentucky offense a serious boost.
Things looked bleak for the Wildcats just a few weeks ago. Had center Malachi Moreno stayed in the draft and Momcilovic chosen a different destination, Kentucky would be facing a rough offseason. Instead, Pope has stabilized the roster and put his program on an upward trajectory.
Full Multi-Bid League Breakdown
Here is how the major conferences stack up in the early 76-team projection:
- Big Ten (12): Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue, Nebraska, UCLA, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, USC, Maryland, Oregon
- Big 12 (11): Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, Arizona State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor
- SEC (10): Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, Kentucky, Missouri, Texas A&M, Auburn
- ACC (9): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Miami, Clemson, NC State, SMU, Virginia Tech
- Big East (5): UConn, St. John's, Villanova, Marquette, Providence
- Pac-12 (2): Gonzaga, San Diego State
- Atlantic 10 (2): VCU, Saint Louis
What It Means for Iowa
The early bracketology is just a snapshot, but it tells a clear story. Iowa State has work to do replacing its departed star, but the Cyclones are still firmly in the field. Iowa, on the other hand, has a steep hill to climb. The Hawkeyes need to prove they belong in a Big Ten that shows no signs of slowing down.
As the offseason progresses and rosters finalize, these projections will shift. For now, Iowa fans have a long summer of waiting ahead, with plenty of hope and a healthy dose of uncertainty.