Kansas Senate Fight Could Drain GOP Resources From Iowa Races

Republicans are racing to head off a potential nightmare in Kansas, and the outcome could hit close to home for Iowa voters. A late-stage push is underway to boost Rep. Roger Marshall over Kris Kobach in the state's crowded Senate primary, and the stakes extend well beyond Kansas borders.

Most Republicans believe Marshall holds a lead in the polls among the 11-candidate field, but his advantage is far from insurmountable. The real alarm set in last week when a Democrat-linked super PAC dropped $3 million on ads designed to boost Kobach and damage Marshall, a clear sign that outside groups are trying to meddle in the Republican primary.

Why Iowa Voters Should Pay Attention

Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, making it an unlikely battleground. But with President Donald Trump sliding in the polls and a potential Kobach nomination on the table, Democrats see their clearest shot at the seat in decades. For Republicans already nervous about their three-seat Senate majority, that is a serious problem.

Scott Reed, the chief political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, made the stakes plain. A Kobach victory, he warned, would put the Republican majority in jeopardy by forcing the party to pour serious resources into a state that should be safe.

A victory for Marshall in the primary would spare the party money better spent in races like North Carolina, Maine or Iowa, among others. There's plenty of map out there, and we sure don't want to be wasting time in Kansas in September and October.

That is the bottom line for Iowans. Every dollar and every hour spent defending a seat in Kansas is money and time that cannot go toward protecting competitive races right here in Iowa.

Democrat Meddling Draws Republican Fire

The Democratic-linked group, Sunflower State, has been the biggest spender in the race, with more than $3 million already spent or reserved between now and the Aug. 4 primary. The group will not have to reveal its funding sources until after the primary, a detail that has drawn criticism from transparency advocates.

Steven Law, president of Senate Leadership Fund, said the group is stepping in to counter the Democratic interference and boost Marshall.

The latest ad from Schumer's Kansas pop-up PAC shows that they want to start the general election early by going after Marshall, and we aren't going to let them get the jump on us.

Law, a former longtime aide to Mitch McConnell who also ran the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said the SLF spending is aimed at ensuring Republicans have a viable general election candidate.

Kobach Pushes Back Against Party Establishment

Kobach, who lost the Kansas gubernatorial race in 2018, has struggled to raise money or gain traction in recent months. But he is not staying quiet about the new spending. He slammed the SLF's involvement in an emailed statement, arguing that McConnell's allies should stay out of the primary.

We've heard this story before. Whenever a conservative is in the lead in a Republican Senate primary, McConnell jumps in to support the moderate opponent. McConnell wants a yes man in the Senate. All of the polling shows that whoever wins this primary wins the general election by about the same amount. McConnell should stay out of it and let Republican voters in Kansas make up their own minds.

Kobach also called the SLF spending a really poor use of Republican contributors' money, arguing it would be better spent in places like Colorado, Arizona or Iowa where GOP incumbents face competitive races.

Marshall Campaign Fires Back

Eric Pahls, a spokesman for Marshall's campaign, criticized Kobach for staying silent about the Democratic ad spending while complaining about Republican groups.

Leader Chuck Schumer has spent millions to boost the Kobach campaign, and when asked about it, Kris is silent. A Republican group spends money in the Republican primary, and Kris is throwing a tantrum. That's Kris Kobach in a nutshell.

Bob Hamilton, a conservative businessman self-funding much of his campaign, also took a swipe at the outside spending. His spokeswoman, Casey Burns, called it typical Washington behavior.

Washington politicians endorse a Washington politician, no surprise.

Crowded Field Creates Uncertainty

Public polling has been sparse, and while most Republicans believe Marshall has a lead, the advertising blitz in the final days may have shaken things up just as voters start paying close attention. At least five outside groups and four campaigns will be running ads in the next week, according to Advertising Analytics.

Hamilton has aired more than $2 million in TV ads, many focused on his outsider message and his well-known image from running a plumbing business. Marshall has spent about half of what Hamilton has, but it is still nearly six times what Kobach has spent.

The Chamber of Commerce has focused its pro-Marshall advertising in Johnson County, targeting the Kansas City suburbs where Marshall needs to build name recognition but is not well known.

Democrats Wait in the Wings

While Republicans battle it out, Democrats have rallied behind state Sen. Barbara Bollier, a physician and former Republican who recently switched parties. Bollier has consistently outraised her potential Republican opponents and has been running positive TV ads, spending more than $800,000 while the GOP primary rages on.

National Republicans did not spend months boosting Marshall, despite denouncing Kobach's campaign more than a year ago. His low fundraising frustrated some party operatives, and McConnell and others spent months trying to recruit Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the former Kansas congressman who ultimately declined to run.

Still, Marshall has consolidated support among influential Kansans, including former Sen. Bob Dole, the Kansas Farm Bureau, and the anti-abortion group Kansans for Life. Reed called the Dole and Roberts endorsements a one-two punch and said the campaign is finishing on a high.

David Kensinger, a veteran Republican operative in Kansas, said the Democratic meddling clarified the stakes, though he added that the crowded field makes it harder to feel secure about defeating Kobach.

Democrats are spending more to nominate Kris Kobach than Republicans are.

For Iowa Republicans watching from the sidelines, the message is clear. What happens in Kansas on Aug. 4 could determine whether critical resources flow to competitive races here at home or get tied down in a state that should be safely red.