Nate Silver Model Shows Peltola Edging Ahead of Sullivan in Alaska Senate Race
Alaska's U.S. Senate race is tightening, with new data from statistician Nate Silver showing Democrat Mary Peltola slightly ahead of incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. The shift comes as national forecasters list the race as a toss-up and former President Donald Trump warns Alaska voters to be careful which Dan Sullivan they choose on the ballot.
Silver's latest polling average released Tuesday shows Peltola, a former U.S. House member, leading Sullivan by a narrow 48.1% to 46.6% margin. The update marks a notable change from previous forecasts that had Sullivan ahead.
What changed in the Alaska Senate race forecast?
Silver explained the shift on social media, noting that his model had been heavily anchored on a New York Times poll showing Sullivan leading. However, he said there is now enough evidence from other polling to outweigh that single survey.
“Today's update. The big thing is that Peltola is now very slightly ahead in our Alaska polling average. Mix of polls here is a bit D-leaning; model had been heavily anchored on the NYT poll that had Sullivan leading, but it thinks there's now enough evidence to outweigh that,” Silver wrote.
Fox News Power Rankings list Alaska as a toss-up
Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer also highlighted the Alaska race during a segment on the network's updated Senate Power Rankings. The map now shows six toss-up states that could determine control of the Senate: Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.
Hemmer noted the unusual situation in Alaska's primary, where two candidates named Dan Sullivan appear on the ballot. The top four finishers advance under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, which could delay a final result in November.
“Dan S. Sullivan is on the ballot, and so too is Dan J. Sullivan. And what a lot of people are starting to raise some eyebrows about in the Senate primary out there in Alaska: Mary Peltola is a Democrat running. Funky system — the top four advance today, and then you get ranked choice voting come November. So if the Senate is super close on election night, it may take a week before we know who wins Alaska,” Hemmer explained.
Trump urges Alaska voters to pick the right Dan Sullivan
Former President Donald Trump weighed in Tuesday on Truth Social, warning Alaska Republicans to ensure they vote for the incumbent rather than the challenger sharing his name.
“ALASKA: Be careful, VOTE FOR THE REAL DAN SULLIVAN TODAY. Through me, he's brought HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS BACK TO YOUR STATE. The Dumocrats know how good he is and have put up an imposter of the same name,” Trump wrote.
What does the Alaska race mean for Iowa voters?
Iowa is also listed among the six toss-up states that could decide Senate control. Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is seeking reelection, and national forecasters are watching her race closely alongside Alaska and other battleground states.
With Republicans and Democrats each considered safe in 47 seats, the six toss-up races will likely determine which party holds the majority. Iowa voters will play a direct role in that outcome.
What happens next in the Alaska Senate race?
Alaska's primary takes place Tuesday, with the top four candidates advancing to the November general election. Under the state's ranked-choice voting system, results may not be finalized until days after Election Day if the race remains close.
National attention will remain focused on Alaska and the other toss-up states as both parties compete for Senate control.