Texas Senate Race Tightens: Cruz Warns Talarico Has 'Real Chance' to Flip State

Senator Ted Cruz, a Texas Republican, told Sean Hannity's radio show this week that Democrat James Talarico has a 'real chance' of flipping the traditionally red state in the upcoming Senate race against Republican nominee Ken Paxton. The warning comes as recent polls show the contest neck and neck, with both candidates holding narrow leads.

What Did Ted Cruz Say About Talarico?

'Unfortunately, I do think he has a real chance,' Cruz said of Talarico, speaking alongside Governor Greg Abbott. He called the race a 'real race' and expects it to be extremely close. 'I think we're going to win, I think we're going to keep Texas red, but the polling right now shows this is a 1- or 2-point race,' Cruz added.

Cruz labeled Talarico as 'radical' and 'extreme,' but warned, 'This guy is also charming.' He said Talarico 'sounds like a preacher' and worried about voters who may not pay close attention to issues. Cruz also highlighted Talarico's past comment describing God as nonbinary, a remark Republicans have used to argue the Democrat's views are out of step with many Texas voters.

What the Latest Texas Senate Polls Show

A recent New York Times/Siena poll shows the race deadlocked at 47 percent for both Talarico and Paxton, with 6 percent undecided. The poll of 656 likely voters found 50 percent believe Paxton is 'too extreme,' compared to 43 percent for Talarico. On character, 56 percent view Talarico favorably versus 38 percent for Paxton.

Other surveys tell a similar story. A late-June A2 Insights poll gave Talarico a 48 to 46 percent edge, while a University of Texas poll showed Paxton up 43 to 42 percent. Prediction markets, however, favor Paxton, with Kalshi giving him a 57 percent chance of winning.

What Is Driving Paxton's Push?

Paxton's surge appears driven by Republican unity. In April, 63 percent of Republicans said they would support him in November; by June, that number rose to 84 percent. Talarico, meanwhile, has stronger backing from independents (40 percent to 12 percent) and leads among Black and Hispanic voters. Paxton leads among white voters, 53 percent to 33 percent.

What's Next for the Texas Senate Race?

The months ahead are expected to bring an influx of campaign spending and advertising. Talarico has shattered fundraising records, hauling in $30 million in just three months — more than triple Paxton's $9 million, according to Talarico's campaign. The race remains one of the most closely watched in the nation as Democrats seek to regain control of the Senate.

For Iowa readers, this race offers a preview of the high-stakes contests that could determine control of the Senate. Republicans currently hold a majority, but competitive races in states like Iowa, Alaska, and Maine could shift the balance.