President Donald Trump's approval rating in the Midwest has dropped to 38 percent, with 57 percent disapproving, according to an October New York Times/Siena poll reported by Newsweek. The 19-point underwater mark is the first of its kind in his second term, and it lands just days before the November 3 midterms.
The numbers matter in Iowa, where Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are competing for the Senate seat being vacated by Senator Joni Ernst. The Cook Political Report now rates Iowa as a toss-up, a classification that would have seemed far-fetched a year ago in a state Trump carried comfortably in 2024.
What the poll actually found
The Times/Siena survey questioned 3,494 voters nationwide from October 12 to 19, with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points. The Midwest figure comes from a smaller regional subgroup, however, and the published data does not include a separate sample size or margin of error for that group. The 19-point deficit should be read as a directional signal rather than a precise prediction.
Democrats also held a nine-point edge on the generic House ballot among Midwestern respondents. Nationally, 69 percent disapproved of Trump's handling of living costs and 73 percent disapproved of his record on gas prices.
Iowa's Senate race is now a toss-up
Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego, told Newsweek that closely contested races in traditionally Republican states such as Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are “incredibly rare.” He argued that GOP candidates may need to outperform Trump to win because his “unpopularity is the only reason we are now talking about these states as battlegrounds.”
Kousser pointed to higher fuel and fertilizer costs following the Iran war as real-world burdens in Iowa and Kansas, two states that backed Trump strongly in 2024.
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said Trump's policies have hit Midwestern farmers and working-class communities “especially hard,” citing tariffs alongside struggling middle- and working-class households. Healthcare is another worry, he said, as residents anticipate losing support or encounter cutbacks and rural hospital closures.
“One of the dangers of unified government, where Republicans control all the levers of the federal government, is that there's no escaping accountability when voters are looking for a finger to point,” Panagopoulos said.
Can GOP candidates outrun the headwind?
Republican strategists who spoke with Newsweek said strong local candidates can still separate themselves from the White House. John Thomas, a veteran GOP strategist and managing director of Nestpoint, said Midwest voters have a history of ticket-splitting when the local Republican is stronger on the economy and border security.
“It is a warning sign, not a closed door,” Thomas said. He identified cost-of-living frustration as Trump's central vulnerability but said late advertising from MAGA Inc. and affiliated groups is emphasizing border enforcement, energy production and the administration's efforts to reduce inflation.
“Candidate quality and continued emphasis on delivered results versus Democratic alternatives will determine how much of that movement holds through Election Day,” Thomas said.
Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist, went further, saying voters can separate Trump from other candidates because the president's ratings “have never been good, they just happen to be a little worse than normal.”
Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist and former aide to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said Republicans were “paying for the gap between Trump's economic promises and what voters are experiencing.” She cautioned against treating one regional cross-tab as a forecast for four states, but added: “It's a warning Republicans should take seriously.”
Iowa House races add to the stakes
The Senate contest is not the only Iowa race feeling the pressure. Fox News reports that its Power Rankings show all but one of Iowa's four congressional districts are in play, with the districts held by Representatives Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks both leaning Democrat and the open seat being vacated by Hinson ranked a toss-up. Republicans nationally are privately worried that Trump's low approval numbers could drag down the ticket.
White House pushes back
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump remains the Republican Party's “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator.”
“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” Ingle said in an emailed statement to Newsweek.
Ingle pointed to the administration's record, including what he called the largest working-class tax cuts in history, lower prescription drug costs, a sealed border, an energy revolution, more than a million private-sector jobs added and record-high 401(k)s.
How the other Midwest Senate races look
Michigan's open-seat contest pits Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist and public health administrator, against Republican Mike Rogers, a former congressman and House Intelligence Committee chair. A Marist survey of likely voters conducted October 15 to 18 put El-Sayed at 50 percent and Rogers at 48 percent, within its 4.3-point margin of error.
Ohio's special election pits former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024, against Republican Senator Jon Husted, the former lieutenant governor appointed after JD Vance became vice president.
In Kansas, Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton faces Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a race that has become unusually competitive for a reliably Republican state.
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate, so late movement across several competitive states could prove decisive.
Frequently asked questions
What is Trump's approval rating in the Midwest?
Trump's Midwest approval stands at 38 percent with 57 percent disapproving, an October New York Times/Siena poll found, leaving him 19 points underwater in the region for the first time in his second term.
How does the poll affect the Iowa Senate race?
The Cook Political Report rates Iowa's Senate race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek as a toss-up, and strategists say Republican candidates may need to outperform Trump's numbers to win.
When is the midterm election?
Election day is November 3, with Republicans defending their congressional majorities.