President Donald Trump flew to Sioux City last week to rally voters in Iowa's deep-red 4th District, betting that occasional Republican voters who show up only for him can decide the state's tight Senate and governor races this midterm cycle.
The October visit, nearly three hours each way from Washington, was headlined for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican running in a close Senate race, and Zach Lahn, the Republican candidate in a close race for governor. The choice of venue puzzled some observers. Why campaign in the district Trump carried by 31 points in 2024 instead of a battleground area?
Why Trump Went to His Strongest Iowa District
The answer, according to Townhall's Byron York, is low-propensity voters. The 4th District holds a large number of Republican-leaning Iowans who skip midterm elections but turned out in 2024 to vote for Trump. With no Trump on the 2026 ballot, the GOP's challenge is pulling those voters to the polls anyway.
Jeff Kaufmann, the longtime chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa, told York that Trump himself is the only tool that works.
“MAGA low-propensity voters are a sizable part of our low-propensity voters,” Kaufmann said. “There is no way to turn them out without Trump himself. They don't get out to vote when Trump is not on the ballot.”
Kaufmann said he made that case directly to the president. “I said to the president, there is no mailer, no commercial, that can turn out the MAGA portion of our low-propensity voters,” he recalled. Only a personal appearance would do.
A Proven Strategy for Iowa Republicans
Iowa Republicans have won this way before. Kaufmann said low-propensity voters “literally carried” Gov. Kim Reynolds over the line in her reelection, and that the party does not win statewide races for governor, Senate, attorney general, or state auditor without strong 4th District turnout, especially in a midterm.
Trump swept all four of Iowa's congressional districts in 2024. He won the 1st District by 8 points, the 2nd District by 10 points, the Des Moines-area 3rd District by 4 points, and the 4th District by 31 points, according to the Washington Examiner's reporting on the Sioux City strategy.
Speaking the day after the rally, Kaufmann said the visit hit its mark. “I think we accomplished our goal, which was to energize turnout in the 4th District,” he said.
National Playbook: Florida, Georgia, Michigan
Iowa is not the only state seeing this approach. The Friday before the Sioux City rally, Trump traveled to Fort Myers, Florida, in a district he won by 31 points. On Saturday he went to Perry, Georgia, another 31-point district. On Sunday he rallied in Port Huron, Michigan, a district he carried by 32 points.
The pattern is deliberate. Trump is going where his strongest supporters live and asking them to vote as if his own name were on the ballot. CNN's midterm coverage notes the president has repeatedly urged voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot as Republican poll numbers have sagged.
Does the 'Pretend I'm on the Ballot' Strategy Work?
Trump has been mocked for the appeal. The New Yorker said it shows that “only one subject truly animates Donald Trump on the campaign trail, and it is, of course … himself.” The Daily Beast called it a “desperate plea.”
At a Detroit rally with Barack Obama, Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed ridiculed the Port Huron visit and asked voters, sarcastically, “Please make sure to vote like Donald Trump is on the ballot.”
But the mockery overlooks the data. A 2025 Pew Research Center report found that voters who skipped 2020 and 2022 but cast ballots in 2024 leaned heavily toward Trump. He won those 2024-only voters 55 percent to Kamala Harris's 41 percent, and they made up 12 percent of the entire presidential electorate that year.
Not everyone is convinced the tactic transfers to a midterm. One analysis argues the “pretend I'm on the ballot” framing is a trap, citing a Politico poll that found Democratic voters more motivated to vote against Trump than Republicans are to turn out for him on Nov. 3.
The bet might not work everywhere. York's assessment is blunt: it is probably the Republican Party's best shot at the moment. For Iowa, the strategy carries real weight. Hinson's Senate race and Lahn's governor's race are close, and statewide margins in recent cycles have hinged on whether the 4th District turns out.
FAQ
Why did Trump hold a rally in Iowa's safest Republican district?
Trump went to Sioux City because the 4th District holds many Republican-leaning voters who only vote when Trump is on the ballot. Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said only Trump in person can motivate them for a midterm.
Who is on the ballot in Iowa that Trump is trying to help?
Trump rallied for Rep. Ashley Hinson, the Republican in a close Senate race, and Zach Lahn, the Republican in a close race for governor.
What is a low-propensity voter?
A low-propensity voter is someone registered or eligible to vote who does not cast a ballot in most elections. Pew Research found 2024-only voters backed Trump 55 percent to 41 percent, making them a prime midterm target.