Iowans heading to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 3, should pack an umbrella, forecasters say, because a slow-moving storm system is expected to push rain across much of the state on Election Day.
The wet weather comes as Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson holds a narrow lead over Democrat Josh Turek in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, one of several midterm contests where Aol reports turnout could hinge in part on the forecast.
What the forecast shows for Iowa
Rain will linger through Tuesday, Nov. 3, after possible afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Monday, Nov. 2, according to the National Weather Service. Much of the state is expected to see moderate rainfall on Election Day.
The system, which brought weekend rain to California and the Southwest, is pushing east across the country ahead of Tuesday, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center said in an online forecast. Voters from the northcentral U.S. to the Southeast could encounter rain, thunderstorms and, in spots, high winds.
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan will likely have rain, which could affect voters traveling to the polls or waiting in line outside. Some areas will see scattered showers while others could face several hours of steady rain, he said.
How weather can move votes
Political scientists have long noted that bad weather tends to depress turnout, and every campaign in a tight race watches the forecast closely in the final days. Iowa's Senate contest fits that description. Hinson's lead over Turek is narrow enough that even a small turnout dip in either party's strongholds could shape the result.
For voters who want to avoid the worst of it, the practical advice is simple: vote early in the day if your schedule allows, and check local forecasts before leaving home. Rain jackets beat umbrellas in windy conditions, and anyone with mobility concerns should consider driving to the polls rather than walking.
Storm stretches across the middle of the country
The system does not stop at Iowa's borders. CNN reported that the storm tracking through the central United States on Election Day could influence turnout in several key midterm races, while CNN also noted that heavy rain over the Four Corners states on Sunday and Monday raised the risk of flash flooding before the system marches into the central U.S.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and into Ohio and the Tennessee Valley on Nov. 3, the Weather Prediction Center said. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in parts of the mid- to lower Mississippi Valley, including Missouri and Arkansas, and extending into Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.
Sosnowski warned that thunderstorms from the Texas and Louisiana coasts north into parts of Missouri and Illinois could lead to power outages in some areas of the south-central region.
Other Senate races in the storm's path
Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, will see showers and possible strong winds on Nov. 3, with temperatures in the 50s and 60s, according to AccuWeather.
In Texas, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico, skies should clear in the north and central parts of the state, but showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Ark-La-Tex region and around Houston, where the high could reach 79.
Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is leading Republican Mike Rogers, could see heavy rain in the western part of the state. Maine, where five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking re-election, has only a 30% chance of rain.
Most of the West, the Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, will stay dry, Sosnowski said.
Plan ahead for Tuesday
The best move for Iowa voters is to build a little flexibility into the day. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. statewide, and lines tend to be shortest mid-morning and mid-afternoon. Anyone who has not yet returned an absentee ballot should check local deadlines.
A few hours of rain is a small price for a say in who represents Iowa in Washington, and Tuesday's stakes, from the Senate race on down the ballot, are high enough that a little weather should not keep anyone home.
FAQ
Will it rain on Election Day in Iowa?
Yes. The National Weather Service expects rain to linger through Tuesday, Nov. 3, with moderate rainfall across much of the state following possible Monday thunderstorms.
Could the weather affect Iowa's Senate race?
It could. Rep. Ashley Hinson's lead over Josh Turek is narrow, and forecasters and analysts have noted that bad weather can depress turnout in competitive races.
Which states will stay dry on Election Day?
Most of the West, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia, are expected to have dry weather, according to AccuWeather.