Iowans heading to the polls on Tuesday, November 3, should pack an umbrella. Forecasters with the National Weather Service say a storm system sweeping out of the West will bring heavy rain and dreary conditions to much of the state on Election Day, right as voters decide high-stakes races for governor and U.S. Senate.
The forecast, first reported by Aol, places Iowa among the states facing the roughest Election Day weather in the country, alongside Texas and Kansas, where competitive contests could hinge on turnout. A line of thunderstorms is expected to stretch from Texas to Missouri, with sustained rainfall blanketing the upper Midwest.
What the National Weather Service Is Predicting for Iowa
Justin Schultz, the lead forecaster for the National Weather Service office in Davenport, said conditions across Iowa on Tuesday look to be extremely wet.
“It'll be pretty dreary,” Schultz said. “There looks to be a good bit of rainfall falling right on Election Day for at least portions of the state.”
Schultz said his team expects the forecast to firm up over the weekend. No flooding is predicted at this point, but one measurement stands out: precipitable water, the amount of moisture held in a column of the atmosphere, could climb to near-record levels for early November.
“It could actually be near record moisture for this time of the year,” Schultz said.
Will the Storm Affect Voter Turnout in Iowa's Races?
That is the question on the minds of campaign operatives in both parties. Iowa has close races brewing for governor and for the U.S. Senate, and statewide rainfall on Election Day could test how committed each side's voters are.
“The middle part of the country is going to be probably the most active area on Election Day,” said Bob Oravec, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. “Depending on how committed people are going to be to turning out for whatever candidate they're going to vote for, the weather could have an impact.”
Oravec said forecasting models show thunderstorms hammering north central Texas on Tuesday morning, a critical battleground in the state's U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. High winds, large hail, and even tornadoes are all possibilities along the storm line, he said.
While Texas faces the severe side of the system, Iowa's challenge will be plain, persistent rain. For campaigns counting on a final push of Election Day voters, that could matter. Political observers have long noted that bad weather tends to suppress turnout among marginal voters, while committed partisans show up regardless. In a state where Republican campaigns have built strong absentee and early vote operations, a rainy Tuesday may put a premium on ground game.
A Storm System Forecasters Say They Can Trust
Even though Election Day is still several days out, Oravec said the National Weather Service is confident about the overall pattern. The system is expected to sweep across the West Coast on Sunday and reach the central states on Tuesday.
“This is the kind of system that our numerical models handle well,” Oravec said. “The individual timing of a line of thunderstorms likely will change over the next few days. But the overall idea of the storm moving from west to east is pretty well set.”
CNN's weather team has also flagged the system, reporting that severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible on the storm's southern side from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Neighboring States Face Their Own Hazards
Iowa is not the only Plains state in the storm's path. The Weather Prediction Center forecasts high winds across Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska.
“We're looking at sustained winds around 20 to 30 miles an hour, and we could see some gusts over 40 to maybe even over 50 miles an hour,” said Clint Alexander, a National Weather Service forecaster in Goodland, Kansas.
Alexander said the winds could affect travel on Interstate 70, the main east-west corridor through Kansas, though that forecast remains somewhat uncertain. Kansas itself has become a surprise Senate battleground, with polls showing Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton neck and neck, according to 10bmnews.
What Iowans Should Do Before Tuesday
With the forecast still coming into focus, Iowans have a few days to plan around it. Voters who want to avoid standing in the rain can check whether they still have early voting options through their county auditor's office, and everyone should build extra travel time into their day on Tuesday.
The National Weather Service will refine the Iowa forecast over the weekend, Schultz said, so watch for updated local outlooks from the Davenport and Des Moines offices before heading out.
Frequently Asked Questions
What weather is expected in Iowa on Election Day?
The National Weather Service forecasts significant rainfall across at least portions of Iowa on Tuesday, November 3, with moisture levels that could approach a record for this time of year. No flooding is currently predicted.
Could the storm affect Iowa's election results?
Forecasters and political observers say heavy rain can suppress turnout among less committed voters. Iowa's races for governor and U.S. Senate are expected to be competitive, so turnout could play a deciding role.
Which other states face Election Day storms?
Forecasters predict thunderstorms from Texas to Missouri, with high winds in Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska. Texas, Kansas, and Iowa, all states with competitive races, face the most active conditions.