A storm system sweeping out of the West is expected to dump heavy rain across Iowa on Election Day Tuesday, and forecasters say the wet weather could affect turnout in the state's competitive races for governor and U.S. Senate.
According to NBC News, the National Weather Service is tracking a system that will cross the West Coast on Sunday and push into the central United States by Tuesday, bringing thunderstorms from Texas to Missouri and what one Iowa meteorologist calls a dreary, potentially record-wet day for parts of the Hawkeye State.
Heavy rain expected right on Election Day in Iowa
Justin Schultz, the lead forecaster at the National Weather Service office in Davenport, said Iowa voters should prepare for a soggy trip to the polls.
“It'll be pretty dreary,” Schultz said. “There looks to be a good bit of rainfall falling right on Election Day for at least portions of the state.”
Schultz said his team expects the forecast to firm up over the weekend. No flooding is predicted, but a measurement called precipitable water, the amount of moisture held in a column of the atmosphere, could climb to an all-time high for this time of year.
“It could actually be near record moisture for this time of the year,” Schultz said.
Why turnout matters in Iowa's races
Iowans will decide a governor's race and a U.S. Senate contest on Tuesday, and both campaigns have spent months building ground operations designed to get supporters to the polls. Rain on Election Day tests those operations, because voters who planned to swing by a polling place between errands may stay home instead.
Bob Oravec, a lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center, said the middle of the country faces the roughest conditions in the nation on Tuesday, and he acknowledged weather can move numbers at the ballot box.
“The middle part of the country is going to be probably the most active area on Election Day,” Oravec said. “Depending on how committed people are going to be to turning out for whatever candidate they're going to vote for, the weather could have an impact.”
Oravec said forecasters are confident in the overall track of the system, even five days out. “This is the kind of system that our numerical models handle well,” he said. “The individual timing of a line of thunderstorms likely will change over the next few days. But the overall idea of the storm moving from west to east is pretty well set.”
Storms stretch from Texas to the Plains
The same system is expected to bring severe thunderstorms to north central Texas on Tuesday morning, an area watching a high-profile Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico. Oravec said high winds, large hail and even tornadoes are all possibilities there.
CNN has also reported that severe storms and heavy rain are possible on the system's southern side from Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley, and CNN Weather, cited by Raw Story, warned the storm could influence turnout in several competitive midterm races across the region.
Further north, the concern is wind rather than rain. Clint Alexander, a National Weather Service forecaster in Goodland, Kansas, said the Plains states, including Kansas, Colorado and Nebraska, could see sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 50 mph.
“We could see some gusts over 40 to maybe even over 50 miles an hour,” Alexander said, adding that travel could be affected on Interstate 70, the main east-west corridor through Kansas. Kansas itself hosts a surprise Senate battleground, with polls showing Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton running neck and neck.
What Iowa voters can do to prepare
Iowans who want to avoid the worst of the weather have options. Voters can check their polling place ahead of time, plan a morning or early-afternoon window before rain intensifies, and allow extra travel time on wet roads. Anyone with questions about precinct locations can contact their county auditor's office.
Schultz said the weekend forecast should give a clearer picture of exactly when the heaviest rain arrives, so Iowans should watch for updates from the National Weather Service over the next few days.
FAQ
Will it rain on Election Day in Iowa?
Yes. The National Weather Service office in Davenport expects a good amount of rain across at least portions of Iowa on Tuesday, with moisture levels that could approach a record for late October.
Could the weather affect Iowa's election results?
Forecasters say weather can affect turnout, depending on how committed voters are. Iowa has competitive races for governor and U.S. Senate on the ballot.
Is flooding expected in Iowa?
No. The National Weather Service is not predicting flooding, just a wet and dreary day with potentially record atmospheric moisture.
When will the Iowa forecast be more certain?
Lead forecaster Justin Schultz said the forecast should firm up over the weekend as the storm system moves closer.