Iowans head to the polls Tuesday with gasoline and diesel at record highs for an election day, a sticker shock that is hitting the state's farmers especially hard and tightening a Senate race that Republicans expected to win comfortably.
The national average for a gallon of gas stood at $4.20 on Friday, nearly 40% above the same time last year, according to CNBC reporting. Diesel, the fuel that powers Iowa's tractors, combines and semi fleets, has surged about 70% over the past year to $6.32 a gallon.
The promise that has not materialized
During the 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump told voters he would cut energy prices in half within his first year in office.
quot;My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office,quot; Trump said in a September 2024 speech to the New York Economic Club.
quot;Energy is going to bring us back. That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon,quot; he told voters at the time.
Instead, prices have climbed to levels never before seen this late in the year. quot;Prices have never been this high this late in the year,quot; said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, who forecasts the highest election day fuel prices on record. For comparison, gas averaged $3.80 during the 2022 midterms, the year Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a global energy crisis, according to AAA data cited by CNN Business.
Why prices spiked
The turning point came on Feb. 28, when Trump ordered a joint attack on Iran alongside Israel. Tehran retaliated with strikes on tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, choking one of the world's most important oil shipping routes.
quot;Trump got in his own way,quot; De Haan said. quot;Back in December, we predicted that 2026 was going to be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. That required no effort. And obviously, it hasn't gone that way.quot;
At a Michigan rally last Sunday, Trump called rising fuel costs a quot;small price to payquot; to keep Iran from building a nuclear weapon. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said prices will fall once the conflict ends.
Other disruptions have piled on. Houthi rebels have attacked Saudi refineries, and Ukraine has struck refineries inside Russia, tightening global supply further. Trump had pledged to end the Ukraine war in his first week back in office, but the conflict remains deadlocked. NewsBytes reported that the military action against Iran in early 2026 is the main reason the president's energy pledge has faltered.
Diesel squeeze hits Iowa agriculture
For Iowa, diesel is the story. It fuels everything from planting to harvest to the trucks that haul grain and livestock to market, and a 70% year-over-year jump ripples through every corner of the farm economy.
quot;Frankly, diesel is the key crunch point here because it is so critical to economic growth,quot; ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Friday, after his company posted large profits partly because of the supply disruptions.
The pain is showing up politically. Iowa has backed Trump decisively in his presidential runs, but the Senate race in the Hawkeye State has become competitive, and fuel costs are a top voter concern heading into Tuesday.
What the administration has done
Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, pressed the White House to act, and Trump briefly considered a ban on diesel exports to ease the domestic crunch. He rejected the idea over concerns it could push gasoline prices even higher.
Instead, Trump signed an executive order letting truckers use tax-exempt, off-road diesel on U.S. highways, and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high fuel costs.
The president also struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export roughly 6 million barrels of diesel into the global market through November. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some Republican senators criticized the agreement as rewarding Russian aggression. Energy analysts say the volumes are too small against global demand to move prices much.
What comes next for prices at the pump
Crude oil has rallied ahead of the election. Trump has said he will not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms, but markets are pricing in the risk of renewed fighting after Tuesday's vote. International Brent crude is up more than 13% in October, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude is up 15%.
quot;If there are escalations, that could obviously put upward pressure on prices just ahead of Thanksgiving,quot; De Haan said, quot;which is also when Americans have really staunch traditions in terms of driving to friends and family.quot;
For Iowa farmers wrapping up harvest and hauling grain in the weeks ahead, that means the diesel bills that rose all year are likely to stay high through the holidays.
FAQ
What is the current national average gas price?
The national average stood at $4.20 a gallon on Friday, Oct. 31, nearly 40% higher than the same period last year, according to GasBuddy data cited by CNBC.
How much has diesel risen?
Diesel has climbed about 70% over the past year to $6.32 a gallon, a sharp burden for Iowa's truckers and farmers.
Why did fuel prices rise under Trump?
Prices spiked after the Feb. 28 joint U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, which prompted Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries added further pressure.
What relief is available for farmers?
Trump announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high fuel prices and signed an executive order allowing tax-exempt, off-road diesel on U.S. highways.