Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat has become one of nine battleground contests where candidates are laying out competing plans for Social Security, according to CNBC reporting published Nov. 1, with the program's retirement trust fund projected to run dry in late 2032.
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are vying to replace retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, and whoever wins will be in office when the trust fund is depleted. Without congressional action, only 78% of retirees' benefits would be payable at that point.
What Hinson and Turek are proposing
Turek has staked his position on lifting the payroll tax cap, which limits how much of a worker's earnings are subject to Social Security taxes. The cap rises to $192,300 in 2027, up from $184,500 in 2026.
One of the best ways to keep Social Security solvent is we have to remove the cap, Turek said at a Sept. 9 Des Moines town hall.
A campaign spokesperson said Turek will protect Social Security by lifting the cap to make billionaires pay their fair share.
Hinson has drawn a harder line against benefit changes. Anyone who's going to propose cuts to Social Security is going to get a hell, no from me, Hinson said in a recent AARP interview.
In 2020, Hinson said she was open to raising the retirement age, but she has since said she opposes that change. In 2024, she voted on the House Appropriations Committee to cut Social Security Administration funding by up to $452 million. Hinson's office did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment.
Decorah field office closure became a campaign flashpoint
A Social Security field office in Hinson's district in Decorah closed for six months, and political opponents and advocacy groups blamed staffing cuts backed by DOGE, President Donald Trump's Department of Government Efficiency. In a June 10 statement, Hinson called the closure unacceptable and said she pushed for the office to reopen.
During an Oct. 13 debate, both candidates said they would support a bipartisan commission to address the program's finances.
MS NOW rates the Iowa race as leaning Republican, one of the most competitive open seats on the map this cycle.
Why senators elected this year face a 2032 deadline
Social Security's trustees project the retirement trust fund may be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, meaning senators sworn in next January for six-year terms will be the ones who either fix the program or watch automatic cuts take effect.
A recent Peter G. Peterson Foundation survey of voters in competitive Senate states found 81% are more likely to back a candidate with a plan to avoid automatic cuts than one who promises never to touch the program.
Yahoo News reported that the senators elected this term will grapple with the program's future in a political environment very different from past reform efforts, and Moneywise noted Americans are on track to elect 33 senators who will shape the program for decades.
How other battleground races are handling the issue
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins said at an Oct. 8 debate the payroll tax cap should be adjusted, and she backs a commission of independent financial experts. Her opponent, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, wants the cap raised and benefits expanded.
Michigan Republican Mike Rogers wants a bipartisan committee locked in a room until it finds a solution, while Democrat Abdul El-Sayed wants the cap eliminated entirely.
Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts has pushed to make benefits completely tax-free, while independent challenger Dan Osborn wants the cap removed so everyone pays their fair share.
In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton said Washington has no business cutting benefits, though the Texas Tribune reported he said in a leaked recording that some mandatory spending must be cut. State Rep. James Talarico wants to eliminate the cap for earners above $400,000.
North Carolina, New Hampshire and Ohio round out the nine races CNBC identified where candidates have addressed the program's future. Of those, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas are rated toss-ups.
Frequently asked questions
When is Social Security's trust fund projected to run out?
The program's trustees project the retirement trust fund may be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032.
What happens if Congress does nothing?
Only 78% of retirees' benefits would be payable once the trust fund is depleted, unless lawmakers act first.
What are the main reform ideas on the table?
Candidates have proposed lifting or eliminating the payroll tax cap, ending taxes on benefits, creating bipartisan commissions, and in past years, raising the retirement age or partial privatization.