USC Football's CFP Hopes Rest on Beating Big Ten's Best in 2026
USC Trojans fans have waited long enough. Under head coach Lincoln Riley, the offense is elite, but the program still lacks the signature wins needed to crack the College Football Playoff. In 2026, the schedule is brutal, and the margin for error is razor thin.
Last season, USC boasted the Big Ten's top offense, averaging 465.5 yards per game, and finished 13th nationally. Quarterback Jayden Maiava led the conference in passing yards per game (285.5) and threw 24 touchdowns. The offensive line returns four starters from a unit that was among the best in pass protection. But the Trojans went 1-4 when they failed to run for 130 yards, and they lost star receivers Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane to the NFL.
Can Lincoln Riley Deliver a Playoff Berth?
Riley was hired to make USC a national title contender. So far, the results are mixed. The Trojans went 8-0 when allowing 21 points or fewer, but 0-4 when giving up 30 or more. Over the last two years, they are 2-10 when opponents score more than 21 points. The defense, now coordinated by legendary TCU coach Gary Patterson, must improve third down stops and big-play prevention.
What's Working for the Trojans
The offense is loaded. Maiava returns, along with running back King Miller (972 yards, 8 touchdowns) and a deep receiving corps led by Tanook Hines and NC State transfer Terrell Anderson. The offensive line is experienced and physical.
Defensively, Patterson is a game changer. Linebacker Desman Stephens II (89 tackles) leads a strong unit, and pass rushers Kameryn Crawford (5.5 sacks) and Braylan Shelby (4.5 sacks) form a potent duo. Washington transfer Deven Bryant adds depth at linebacker.
Where USC Must Improve
The Trojans struggled against elite teams. They lost to Notre Dame, Oregon, and Illinois by a combined 11 points. Special teams were a disaster, ranking among the worst nationally in punt and kickoff coverage. Two return touchdowns flipped games against Notre Dame and Oregon.
USC also needs more tackles for loss. The defense generated 73 tackles for loss last year, but 38 came in the first four games. Consistency against the run and on third downs is critical.
Key Players to Watch in 2026
- Terrell Anderson, WR Jr. – A transfer from NC State, he averaged 16 yards per catch and should be the top outside threat.
- Kameryn Crawford, DE Jr. – The 6-5, 265-pound pass rusher has NFL potential and is a marked man.
- Jide Abasiri, DT Jr. – The veteran tackle needs to anchor the interior after 26 tackles and 3.5 sacks.
- Jontez Williams, CB (Iowa State transfer) – A former All-Big 12 corner, he is recovering from a torn ACL but could be a lockdown defender.
The Brutal 2026 Schedule
USC faces a gauntlet: home games against Oregon (Sept. 26), Ohio State, and Washington, plus road trips to Penn State, Indiana, and Wisconsin. The Trojans missed those teams last year. To reach 10-2 and earn CFP consideration, they must win at least two of those marquee matchups.
Transfer Portal Impact
USC used the portal effectively, adding Anderson, Williams, and defensive tackle Alex VanSumeren (Michigan State). The biggest loss was defensive tackle Devan Thompkins to Alabama. But overall, the roster is deeper and more talented than a year ago.
Season Prediction: 9-3
USC is good, but not yet great. The offense will score, but the defense and special teams remain question marks. A 9-3 record is realistic, but that likely leaves the Trojans on the outside of the CFP looking in. For Lincoln Riley, anything less than 10-2 will fuel more calls for change.
“We have the talent, the coaching, and the experience,” Riley said. “Now we have to go win the games that matter.”
For Iowa fans, the Trojans visit Iowa City in 2026. That game could be a defining moment for both programs.